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Is a Beat in Store for Unum Group (UNM) in Q1 Earnings?
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Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2023 earnings on May 2, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings beat in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one, the average surprise being 32.25%.
Factors to Note
UNM’s premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from solid persistency in-force business and strong sales.
The Unum U.S. segment is likely to have benefited from favorable benefits experience in group product lines, disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines. Higher operating expenses might have been a partial offset. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premium income at the Unum U.S. segment is pegged at $1.6 billion, implying an improvement of 4.8% from the prior-year reported figure.
Favorable benefits experience, higher premium income, in-force block growth and higher sales are likely to have favored performance at Colonial Life. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by higher operating expenses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premium income at the Colonial Life segment stands at $436.8 million, indicating an increase of 1.4% from the prior-year level.
Growth in the in-force block, resulting from the impact of rate increases in the group long-term disability product line and higher persistency are likely to have benefited Unum International in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premium income at the Unum International segment stands at $198.5 million, indicating an increase of 5.8% from the year-ago reported quarter.
Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and compensation expense. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.7 billion.
A continued share buyback is likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.65, indicating an increase of 21.3% from the year-ago reported figure. Our estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is $1.64.
Quantitative Model Prediction
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of +0.70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Some insurance stocks also with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
American Equity Investment (AEL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Equity’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.09 per share, indicating an increase of 18.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
AEL’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two.
Lincoln National (LNC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lincoln National’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.88 per share, indicating an increase of 13.3% from the year-ago reported figure.
LNC’s earnings missed estimates in each of the four trailing quarters.
Primerica (PRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.17% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Primerica ’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $3.45 per share, indicating an increase of 63.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
PRI’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two.
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Is a Beat in Store for Unum Group (UNM) in Q1 Earnings?
Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2023 earnings on May 2, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings beat in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one, the average surprise being 32.25%.
Factors to Note
UNM’s premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from solid persistency in-force business and strong sales.
The Unum U.S. segment is likely to have benefited from favorable benefits experience in group product lines, disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines. Higher operating expenses might have been a partial offset. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premium income at the Unum U.S. segment is pegged at $1.6 billion, implying an improvement of 4.8% from the prior-year reported figure.
Favorable benefits experience, higher premium income, in-force block growth and higher sales are likely to have favored performance at Colonial Life. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by higher operating expenses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premium income at the Colonial Life segment stands at $436.8 million, indicating an increase of 1.4% from the prior-year level.
Growth in the in-force block, resulting from the impact of rate increases in the group long-term disability product line and higher persistency are likely to have benefited Unum International in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premium income at the Unum International segment stands at $198.5 million, indicating an increase of 5.8% from the year-ago reported quarter.
Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and compensation expense. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.7 billion.
A continued share buyback is likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.65, indicating an increase of 21.3% from the year-ago reported figure. Our estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is $1.64.
Quantitative Model Prediction
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of +0.70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks also with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
American Equity Investment (AEL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Equity’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.09 per share, indicating an increase of 18.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
AEL’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two.
Lincoln National (LNC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lincoln National’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.88 per share, indicating an increase of 13.3% from the year-ago reported figure.
LNC’s earnings missed estimates in each of the four trailing quarters.
Primerica (PRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.17% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Primerica ’s first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $3.45 per share, indicating an increase of 63.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
PRI’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.